Pair #6583

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02MERMAN-1-MAN

Will Adrian Mannarino win set 1 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Adrian Mannarino
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 989

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrian Mannarino wins set 1 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02MERMAN-2-MAN

Will Adrian Mannarino win set 2 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Adrian Mannarino
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 215

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrian Mannarino wins set 2 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:15:50Z

Reasoning: Winning set 2 and winning set 1 are independent events; neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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