Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02MERMAN-1-MER
Will Daniel Merida win set 1 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Daniel Merida
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 1137
YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.6800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Daniel Merida wins set 1 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02MERMAN-2-MER
Will Daniel Merida win set 2 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Daniel Merida
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 491
YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.7100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Daniel Merida wins set 2 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:15:50Z
Reasoning: Winning set 2 does not imply winning set 1, and winning set 1 does not imply winning set 2. These are independent sets.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A