Pair #658

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WCLA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5397

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-WCLA

Will Wyndham Clark win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 142798

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:49Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a PGA Major. Winning it does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Valspar.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -0.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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