Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR02SAKMAR-MAR
Will Fabian Marozsan win the Sakellaridis vs Marozsan : Round Of 16 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Fabian Marozsan
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 478634
YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.6800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Fabian Marozsan wins the Sakellaridis vs Marozsan professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02SAKMAR-1-MAR
Will Fabian Marozsan win set 1 in the Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Fabian Marozsan
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 11580
YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.6700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Fabian Marozsan wins set 1 in the Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:15:50Z
Reasoning: Winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match, and winning the match does not require winning set 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A