Pair #6579

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR02SAKMAR-MAR

Will Fabian Marozsan win the Sakellaridis vs Marozsan : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Fabian Marozsan
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 478634

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Fabian Marozsan wins the Sakellaridis vs Marozsan professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02SAKMAR-1-MAR

Will Fabian Marozsan win set 1 in the Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Fabian Marozsan
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 11580

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Fabian Marozsan wins set 1 in the Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:15:50Z

Reasoning: Winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match, and winning the match does not require winning set 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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