Pair #6573

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CYOU

Valero Texas Open: Will Carson Young make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Carson Young
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 353

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carson Young has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-CYOU

Valero Texas Open: Will Carson Young finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Carson Young
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5050

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carson Young finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:15:32Z

Reasoning: A top 5 Round 1 finish does not guarantee making the cut — a player could collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut. Making the cut does not require a top 5 Round 1 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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