Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-CYOU
Valero Texas Open: Will Carson Young finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Carson Young
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5050
YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Carson Young finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-CYOU
Valero Texas Open: Will Carson Young finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Carson Young
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1172
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Carson Young finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:15:32Z
Reasoning: A top 10 overall finish does not require a top 5 Round 1 finish, and a top 5 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. These are independent measures across different scopes.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A