Pair #6550

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3206

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-SRYD

Will Sam Ryder lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 157428

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:51Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could have a terrible Round 2 and miss the cut), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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