Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-SRYD
Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3206
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Ryder has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-SRYD
Will Sam Ryder lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 157428
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Ryder is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:51Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could have a terrible Round 2 and miss the cut), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A