Pair #6549

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 293

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2205

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:51Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply finishing top 5 overall, and finishing top 5 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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