Pair #6548

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3206

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 293

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:51Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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