Pair #6547

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-SRYD

Will Sam Ryder lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 157428

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 293

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:51Z

Reasoning: If Sam Ryder leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 10 (the leader is at worst tied for 1st, which is within the top 10). The reverse does not hold — being top 10 in Round 1 does not mean he is the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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