Pair #6545

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 293

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 470

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:51Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the overall tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 specifically, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish overall. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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