Pair #6542

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5541

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3206

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:51Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in the tournament, a player must have made the cut. You cannot finish in the top 20 overall without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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