Pair #6541

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 293

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5541

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:29Z

Reasoning: Overall top 20 finish does not require top 10 in Round 1, and top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 overall finish. These are independent outcomes across different scopes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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