Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-SRYD
Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 293
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SRYD
Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5541
YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:29Z
Reasoning: Overall top 20 finish does not require top 10 in Round 1, and top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 overall finish. These are independent outcomes across different scopes.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A