Pair #6540

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-BBUR

Valero Texas Open: Will Bronson Burgoon finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Bronson Burgoon
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 423

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bronson Burgoon finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-BBUR

Valero Texas Open: Will Bronson Burgoon finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Bronson Burgoon
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 281

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bronson Burgoon finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:29Z

Reasoning: Round 1 top 10 does not imply finishing top 5 overall, and finishing top 5 overall does not require being top 10 in Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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