Pair #654

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-WCLA

Valspar Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4408

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-WCLA

Valspar Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5451

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:49Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar logically necessitates finishing top 10, since top 5 is a subset of top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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