Pair #6535

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-BBUR

Valero Texas Open: Will Bronson Burgoon finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Bronson Burgoon
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 423

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bronson Burgoon finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-BBUR

Will Bronson Burgoon win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Bronson Burgoon
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21452

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bronson Burgoon wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:14:29Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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