Pair #653

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WCLA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1100

Rules

If Wyndham Clark wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-WCLA

Valspar Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4408

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Wyndham Clark finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:49Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical bearing on winning a PGA Major, and vice versa. No necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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