Pair #65

Antecedent (implies)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR16SVASMI-SVA

Will Zachary Svajda win the Svajda vs Smith : Qualification Round 1 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Zachary Svajda
Expiration: 2026-03-16T18:00:00Z
Volume: 323797

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zachary Svajda wins the Svajda vs Smith professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR16SVASMI-2-SVA

Will Zachary Svajda win set 2 in the Zachary Svajda vs Colton Smith match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Zachary Svajda
Expiration: 2026-03-16T18:00:00Z
Volume: 1817

YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zachary Svajda wins set 2 in the Zachary Svajda vs Colton Smith professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Qualification Round 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-17T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: Svajda can win the match without winning set 2 (e.g., winning sets 1 and 3). And winning set 2 alone does not guarantee winning the match. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:18:14Z

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