Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-BTOD
Will Brendon Todd lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brendon Todd
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2389
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Brendon Todd is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-BTOD
Valero Texas Open: Will Brendon Todd make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brendon Todd
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 961
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Brendon Todd has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: low
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:13:16Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not strictly guarantee making the cut — a player could theoretically collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut. However, as a practical matter, the Round 1 leader is extremely well-positioned, but logically it is not a certainty. No strict logical necessity.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A