Pair #6484

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-BTOD

Will Brendon Todd lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brendon Todd
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2389

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brendon Todd is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-BTOD

Valero Texas Open: Will Brendon Todd make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brendon Todd
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 961

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brendon Todd has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: low
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:13:16Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not strictly guarantee making the cut — a player could theoretically collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut. However, as a practical matter, the Round 1 leader is extremely well-positioned, but logically it is not a certainty. No strict logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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