Pair #6474

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-JSTA

Will Jimmy Stanger lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jimmy Stanger
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2703

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jimmy Stanger is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-JSTA

Will Jimmy Stanger win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jimmy Stanger
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2131

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jimmy Stanger wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:12:58Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1 (players can win from behind). Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning. No logical implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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