Pair #6471

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 174075

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan L. Smith wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JSMI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 396

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:12:58Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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