Pair #6470

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 817

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1381

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:12:58Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not logically necessitate making the cut (a player could play well in R1 but miss the cut after R2). Making the cut does not necessitate a top 5 R1 finish. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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