Pair #6469

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 817

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 48609

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player could lead R1 then perform poorly in R2 and miss the cut. Making the cut does not require having led after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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