Pair #6468

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 48609

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1381

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 means having the lowest score, which places the player at position 1 — necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — top 5 in R1 does not mean outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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