Pair #6467

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6996

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 817

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the final standings requires having made the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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