Pair #6464

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1291

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 817

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the final standings requires having made the cut to play the weekend rounds. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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