Pair #6460

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1381

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 601003

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1 — a player can win from outside the top 5 after R1. And finishing top 5 in R1 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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