Pair #6458

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-NSHI

Valero Texas Open: Will Neal Shipley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1494

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Neal Shipley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-NSHI

Will Neal Shipley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1214

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Neal Shipley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player could lead R1 then play poorly in R2 and miss the cut. And making the cut does not require leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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