Pair #644

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WCLA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-WCLA

Valspar Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3023

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:28Z

Reasoning: The Valspar is not a major. Finishing top 20 at the Valspar has no logical connection to winning a major, and winning a major does not affect Valspar standings.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -38.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -42.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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