Pair #6428

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-TOLE

Will Thorbjorn Olesen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18199

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Thorbjorn Olesen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 221

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:47Z

Reasoning: If Olesen leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top position, which means he is in the top 10. However, finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply he is the sole leader. So the leader implies top 10, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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