Pair #6425

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 221

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TOLE

Will Thorbjorn Olesen lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 477

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:47Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player could have a poor Round 1 and excellent Round 2 to lead on aggregate, or scoring resets per round depending on format). And finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply leading after Round 2. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue