Pair #6424

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 221

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6787

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:47Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 10 overall. Different scopes with no logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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