Pair #6421

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TOLE

Will Thorbjorn Olesen lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 477

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Thorbjorn Olesen is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16217

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:23Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 2, and leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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