Pair #6420

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 221

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-TOLE

Will Thorbjorn Olesen win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 321635

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:23Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 — a player can win from outside the top 10 after 18 holes. Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee winning. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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