Pair #6417

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-PNYH

Valero Texas Open: Will Pontus Nyholm make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2040

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Pontus Nyholm has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-PNYH

Will Pontus Nyholm lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14705

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Pontus Nyholm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:23Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player could collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut. Making the cut does not imply leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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