Pair #6413

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-WMOU

Valero Texas Open: Will William Mouw finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1179

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-WMOU

Valero Texas Open: Will William Mouw make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 583

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:23Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily requires having made the cut. Making the cut does not imply finishing top 5. So top 5 implies make cut, not the other way around.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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