Pair #6412

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-WMOU

Valero Texas Open: Will William Mouw make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 583

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-WMOU

Will William Mouw lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25258

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:23Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player could shoot a poor Round 2 and miss the cut. And making the cut does not imply leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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