Pair #6410

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-WMOU

Valero Texas Open: Will William Mouw finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4470

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-WMOU

Valero Texas Open: Will William Mouw make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 583

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:23Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in a 72-hole PGA Tour event, a player must make the cut. If Mouw finishes top 20, he necessarily made the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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