Pair #6405

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-KMIT

Valero Texas Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 846

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-KMIT

Valero Texas Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 601

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:04Z

Reasoning: If Mitchell finishes top 5 in Round 1, he necessarily finishes top 10 in Round 1. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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