Pair #6398

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-MMCG

Valero Texas Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMCG

Valero Texas Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 701

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:11:04Z

Reasoning: If McGreevy finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue