Pair #6397

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MMCG

Valero Texas Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 526

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMCG

Valero Texas Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 701

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:10:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). However, finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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