Pair #6394

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Matthew McCarty make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 555

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MMCC

Will Matthew McCarty lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15740

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:10:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player could lead R1 but miss the cut after R2. Making the cut does not imply leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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