Pair #6392

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 563

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Matthew McCarty make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 555

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew McCarty has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:10:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall requires completing all rounds, which means making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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