Pair #6390

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 468

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6934

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:10:44Z

Reasoning: Round 1 top 10 and overall top 5 are independent — a player can finish top 10 in R1 without finishing top 5 overall, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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