Pair #639

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-RHIS

Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 24139

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-RHIS

Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 473

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:28Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 requires having made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 10 without surviving the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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