Pair #6389

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3508

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denny McCarthy has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 468

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:10:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (cuts are determined after Round 2), and making the cut does not imply a top 10 Round 1 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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