Pair #6388

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-DMCC

Will Denny McCarthy lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 104076

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denny McCarthy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 468

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:10:44Z

Reasoning: If McCarthy leads at the end of Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 10 (the leader is 1st). However, finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply leading — he could be 2nd through 10th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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