Pair #6379

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-HLEB

Will Hank Lebioda lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hank Lebioda
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 560

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hank Lebioda is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-HLEB

Valero Texas Open: Will Hank Lebioda finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hank Lebioda
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 744

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hank Lebioda finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:10:24Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall has no logical relationship to leading after Round 1. Neither direction holds as a matter of necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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