Pair #637

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-RHIS

Will Ryo Hisatsune lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 312

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-RHIS

Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 473

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:28Z

Reasoning: If Hisatsune leads after Round 3, he must have made the cut to play in Round 3. Leading after R3 logically necessitates having made the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not imply leading after R3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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