Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-MHUB
Valero Texas Open: Will Mark Hubbard finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Mark Hubbard
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 200
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Mark Hubbard finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-MHUB
Valero Texas Open: Will Mark Hubbard finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Mark Hubbard
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2825
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Mark Hubbard finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:48Z
Reasoning: Top 5 in Round 1 and top 5 overall are independent — a strong Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish, and a top 5 overall finish does not require a top 5 Round 1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A